Observers around the world are tracking the asteroid closing the distance to Mars and currently the odds of impact are estimated at 1 in 75. The reason for the inaccuracy - the asteroid was discovered not long ago, and tracking it has not yet resulted in a complete calculation of the orbit
Astronomers funded by NASA are monitoring the trajectory of an asteroid known as 2007_WD5 that is expected to cross the orbit of Mars in early 2008. Calculations made by NASA's Office of Near-Earth Objects at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory indicate that the asteroid, which is about 60 meters in diameter, may pass within range of 50 thousand km from the ground of Mars on January 30, 2008 at around 13:00 Israel time. Currently, the asteroid is half the distance between Earth and Mars and it closes the distance with Mars at a speed of about 40 thousand km/h. says Don Youmans, director of the Near Earth Object Office at JPL.
An artist's illustration of the asteroid's orbit on January 30, 2008. The orange patch across Mars outlines the areas that could hit. Although it is still unclear whether Mars will be in the asteroid's orbit or not.
"There is a 1 in 75 chance that 2007_WD5 will hit Mars. The researchers cannot be sure with greater precision due to uncertainties in the asteroid's orbit. If the rare event does occur, the impact will occur within a long strip located north of the area where the robot Oporiniti is operating.
We estimate that such an event occurs on Mars once every few thousand years, says Steve Chelsea, a scientist at JPL: "If 2007_WD5 hits Mars on January 30, calculations show that the impact at a speed of 50 km/h could cause a crater over a kilometer in diameter . The Opterioniti robotic vehicle is currently exploring a similarly sized crater.
Such a collision could release three megatons of energy. Scientists believe that an event of similar magnitude occurred on Earth and caused the event known as the Tungaska event in 1908, but did not create a crater. The bone exploded in the air and its parts were scattered over large forest areas. Mars' atmosphere is much thinner than Earth's, so such an asteroid is more likely to hit the ground.
Asteroid 2007_WD5 was first discovered on November 20, 2007 by the Catalina sky scanner - funded by NASA and placed on a watch list due to its orbit crossing the Earth's orbit. Follow-up observations made by astronomers at Kit Peak, Arizona, and the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico have given scientists enough data to determine that the asteroid does not currently pose a threat to Earth but may instead hit Mars. Since the asteroid has been studied for just over a month, there is still uncertainty as to its expected trajectory. "During the next five weeks until the expected impact, we hope to gather more information from the observations so that we can refine the trajectory of the asteroid," says Yeomans. Additional data can rule out or confirm the possibility of an impact and the NASA website promises to keep updating.
8 תגובות
to N.C. :
You mix sex with non-sex.
When talking about an asteroid hitting a star, we are not talking about it deviating it from its orbit to a considerable extent, but about other things.
The outer crust of the star may crack (depending on its thickness at the point of impact)
The impact page (whose strength depends on the density of the atmosphere) may affect large areas (and if there are life or vegetation in these areas, it may seriously damage them)
The cloud of dust that will rise as a result of the body hitting the ground may disperse in the atmosphere and hide the eye of the sun and cause, if there is life on the planet, the extinction of a significant part of it (a phenomenon that nowadays is commonly called "nuclear winter" because a nuclear war could cause the same thing). One of the accepted explanations for the extinction of the dinosaurs is exactly this.
The article explains exactly what the phenomenon is predicted in the current case - the formation of a crater with a diameter of over a kilometer.
Such a thing could also happen on a planet five times larger than Mars (and the kilometer in question, which would have remained a kilometer, was simply smaller in relation to the entire planet but not absolutely)
There is something unclear to me about the impact effect of an asteroid
On Mars or Earth.
For example, if we were to do such an experiment on a small scale:
On a scale of 1 to 10 million, the earth will be a ball with a diameter of about 130 cm. An asteroid with a diameter of 100 meters will be
A grain of the size of a hundredth of a millimeter (!!!).
Common sense says that a grain with a diameter of one hundredth of a millimeter cannot cause (almost) any damage to a ball with a diameter of 130 cm. (By the way
In this simulation exercise, at what speed should this grain hit the reduced Earth - if in reality the asteroid with a diameter of 100 meters will hit the Earth at a speed of 100 thousand km/h?
Is there anyone who can rack their brains and deal with the above
And give a reasoned and smart answer?
Closing distance is stronger than getting closer
"To close the distance" - in Hebrew "to get closer".
As usual, the article is good. Please take care of the translation.
Hitting an asteroid heading towards Earth is a completely different story than hitting an asteroid heading towards Mars.
We don't have any instrument that can chase asteroids that move at a speed of 40,000 km/h..
He was discovered only a month ago.
Most of the technology exists on paper, it is not possible to organize and leave within a month.
Most space flights are planned years in advance.
The arrowhead is designed to hit missiles moving at a relatively high speed and this is also not done properly.
It's always good in movies, here it's a moving asteroid
At 40.000 km / h.
We are busy with wars among ourselves, not to mention racism and the rest of the inexplicable domestic violence at best
We haven't developed enough fact.
It will take a few more generations or one great tragedy for humanity
In order to achieve the necessary development if we manage to survive it
Good Day
It is a shame that this opportunity is not taken advantage of. We could try to deflect or shoot the asteroid to make sure we have the technology to do so. We could try to slow it down and make it orbit Mars as a satellite and thus gain an asteroid nearby for research purposes. If it collides with Mars, I assume that this will have consequences regarding the possibility of human travel to Mars in the next few years.
We look forward to updates soon.