55 years after envisioning the satellite, and 35 years after envisioning the Internet, Arthur C. Clark enumerates the breakthroughs of the 21st century
The article was first published on 2/5/2000 and therefore the dates should be referred to according to this figure. Regarding 2004, he wasn't far wrong, the efforts to clone humans continue but apparently due to the strict laws against cloning all over the world and in Israel, we won't know about it, at least not the general public.
And the article is before you
A few days ago, the European communications corporation "Eutelsat" launched a new satellite, which should provide data communication and Internet services starting this June. A routine event, but there was something special about it: the satellite was dedicated to the science fiction writer, Arthur C. Clark.
Many are familiar with Clark's works, including "2001 - A Space Odyssey", but not everyone knows that he was the first to conceive, back in 1945, the idea of the communication satellite. The geostationary orbit (in which the satellite moves exactly at the rotation speed of the Earth, and therefore appears to "hang" on a fixed point in the sky) is also called the "Clark orbit". Since that pioneering idea, Clark has a track record of successful communications predictions. In his book "Voices from the Sky" from 1965, for example, he described the Internet: "The communication network will allow the consciousness of our children to flash like lightning across the planet. They will visit anywhere and meet without running outside the house. All the museums and libraries in the world will be extensions of their living rooms."
A few months ago, at the age of 83 and on the eve of the new millennium (which begins in 2001, as he makes sure to mention at every opportunity), Clark published a series of predictions for the 21st century. Clark does not engage in systematic technological forecasting, and his predictions, unlike "serious" forecasting, should not be used basis for decision-making in governments or business organizations. He does have a lot of scientific knowledge, but he is first and foremost a science fiction writer, and therefore he can afford speculative, bold, controversial, and above all interesting predictions (in his classic book "The Face of the Future" from 1959, he claimed that many predictions fail due to "failure Gaza" or "failure of imagination").
The dates of the future events that he describes should not be seen as an accurate prophecy but rather as a goal that can be aspired to, even if its realization is in doubt. Some of the predictions will certainly seem unrealistic (at least in the time frame in question). This has something to do with Clark's effort to avoid pessimistic predictions: "It is desirable to be optimistic about the future," he says, "because it helps to create prophecies that fulfill themselves" (even when he deviates from this rule, and predicts that in 2009 a city in North Korea will be destroyed due to an explosive warhead malfunction Atomic, the sequel is optimistic: the terrible event convinces the world to destroy all nuclear weapons).
And so, according to Clark, in two years we will be heralding the beginning of the end of the oil-based fuel era, thanks to the appearance of commercial facilities for supplying energy from nuclear fusion at low temperatures. Pons and Fleishman, discoverers of the controversial "cold fusion" from 1998, will win the Nobel Prize (a prediction that most physicists will certainly see as far-fetched or at least flawed by extreme optimism). The automobile industry will be obliged to replace the obsolete engines with nuclear fusion facilities.
And this is nothing compared to the next energy revolution: in 2010, "quantum generators" will be developed that can produce energy from a vacuum (one of the theoretical marvels of quantum physics - whose technological application is highly speculative). Home installations based on a "quantum generator" will appear quickly, provide unlimited electricity, and eliminate the power stations and high voltage lines (80 years later, large amounts of fuel will have to be burned again, to return the missing carbon dioxide to the air in order to maintain an effect controlled greenhouse and prevent a new ice age).
In 2004 it will be publicly announced (it is possible that it will be done underground even earlier) about the "duplication" of a human being (such as the cloning of Dolly the sheep). A trivial matter compared to the future ability of genetic engineering to build DNA with the help of a computer. In 2023, dinosaurs will be reproduced with this technology, and the Disney company will open a prehistoric zoo in the style of "Jurassic Park" (despite some unfortunate accidents, Clark adds, the faults will be fixed and people will use small dinosaurs as watchdogs).
In 2014, an orbital Hilton hotel will be built in space, from the huge fuel tanks of the space shuttles that until now have been thrown into the ocean at the end of their mission (the hotel will be inaugurated in 2017 and one of its first guests will be who but Clark, in honor of his 100th birthday. Hilton chain) , by the way, supports the idea of this project.
By 2025, neurological research will achieve a complete understanding of the operation of all the senses and direct input to the brain will be possible. The inevitable result - the "dome of the brain": wear it on your head, and connect to a whole world of real or imaginary experiences, as you wish. You will also be able to connect to the minds and experiences of other people - technological telepathy, if you will (Clark made extensive use of this toy in his book "3001"). The dome of the brain will also have medical importance: doctors will be able to connect to the patient's brain and feel all his pains (weakened to the appropriate extent, reassures Clark). The dome will also bring about a revolution in the legal field, being a perfect lie detector.
Man, with or without the dome, will no longer be the only intelligent creature on Earth. In 2020, artificial intelligence will reach the level of human intelligence, and it will continue to develop at a faster pace than natural evolution.
And what about nanotechnology? This will reach its full capacity in 2040, when the "universal replicator" will appear that will assemble any object, no matter how complex, from simple raw materials along with information about the desired molecular structure. The "replicator" will be able to build anything, from a diamond to a gourmet meal, from waste or soil. The end of agriculture and the entire known manufacturing industry (this is also the vision of the molecular nanotechnology "prophet" Eric Drexler - although Clark described such a miracle device back in 1959).
The consequences: a return to natural landscapes of huge areas cleared from fields or industrial plants, an era of leisure activities, entertainment and learning - and yet a search for new ways to vent the urges of aggression. A part of humanity will think that life is getting too boring: starting in 2050, millions of people will choose to freeze themselves (a special facility will be set up in Antarctica) in order to "migrate" to a more distant and interesting future.
Those who do so may miss the establishment of the first permanent colonies on the moon, in 2051, where people will live longer thanks to the low gravity conditions. Six years later, humanity will celebrate 100 years since the beginning of the space age (the launch of the Russian satellite "Sputnik" in 1957). The celebrations will take place throughout the solar system - from Mars to Jupiter's moons (on one of which life will be discovered in 2011).
But the real flowering of the space age will come only in 2095 with the development of "space propulsion" - the ancient dream of science fiction writers for generations. This is the motivation to take advantage of the curvature of the four-dimensional space (space-time), according to Einstein's theory of general relativity. In this way, man will finally be able to emerge from the solar system into the vastness of the galaxy at speeds approaching the speed of light.
And so, according to Clark, in the year 2100 human history will finally begin.
{Appeared in Haaretz newspaper, 2/5/2000{
The third millennium - futurism
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