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Madina Haunted by Demons MA: CBS: Only 7% of students by 2019 will join state education

Prof. Dan Ben David in response to the question of the Hidaan site: Given the level of education that large populations receive, we will not be able to maintain a first world economy and army and this is an existential risk

Distribution of the student supplement until 2019 between the types of supervision. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
Distribution of the student supplement until 2019 between the types of supervision. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics

The education system is deteriorating. This is according to a report published yesterday by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The report reviews the division of the schools according to the four streams: state, religious, ultra-orthodox and Arab, where the children who have been born so far will study when they reach the first grade.
When examining the composition of the increase in students, which amounted to about 420 thousand students during the years 2019-2001, according to the various sectors of the system, it appears that about 40% of the increase in these years was in the Arab sector and about another 39% in the ultra-orthodox sector. About 14% of the increase is in the religious state education and only about 7% of the increase is in the Hebrew state education. (see diagram).

Of course, the CBS does not see this as a deterioration. They only provide the dry numbers, but given the lack of core education in the ultra-Orthodox schools that 39% of the students born up to these days will join, and due to the low level in the Arab schools (due to neglect by the state and the authorities), and the level of teachers in the state and state religious education system as well, the future is not promising favors

 

As can be seen from one of the tables published by the Central Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of students in ultra-Orthodox elementary schools will increase by 26% compared to a 9% increase in state schools. This is twice the rate of the ultra-orthodox in the general population, and in contrast, among the seculars it is a negative growth rate in relation to their number in the population.

Table 3. The expected addition of students to the system in 2019-2013:

sector Supervision

Addition of students

Addition of students (percentages)

state

(Hebrew)

Religious govermental

orthodox

Arabic

Total

state

(Hebrew)

Religious govermental

orthodox

Arabic

Total

thorough

32,674

27,892

51,747

10,891

123,204

9%

23%

26%

4%

13%

Junior High

9,232

4,627

10,950

24,809

6%

12%

14%

9%

High school

-2,848

4,581

11,378

18,247

34,206

-2%

9%

17%

21%

9%

Total

41,906

37,100

63,125

40,088

182,219

6%

18%

24%

10%

9%

The report also shows that the demand for mathematics teachers in the upper division is expected to reach 6,484 teachers by the year 2019 (an addition of approximately 1,745 teachers compared to 2012). In English, the demand is expected to reach about 5,300 teachers (an addition of 1,226 teachers compared to 2012). Of course, the report does not address the question of why this shortage exists.

Prof. Dan Ben-David, a macroeconomist and public policy expert at Tel Aviv University and head of the Taub Center for Social Policy Research in Israel, says in an interview with the Hidaan website that the problem has three aspects:

  1. What are we even teaching the children?
  2. Who teaches the children - how are the teachers trained and how are they rewarded
  3. How is the second largest budget of the State of Israel after the Ministry of Defense managed.

"Given the level of education received by very large populations in Israel, I am very concerned about our ability as a country to have a modern, competitive economy, an economy at the first world level, in a generation or two. This could lead to an existential risk because without a first world economy we cannot maintain a first world army and what is developing here in the neighborhood does not bode well for a country that cannot defend itself, without even taking a right or left position."

Is it too late to stop the process?
"Everything is in our hands, we don't have to get to this situation. The children have already been born. We have first-rate universities, all the knowledge we need to pass on to the children is still in Israel (even this is not guaranteed to us forever, due to the brain drain). We need to open the gates between the academy and the education system and make sure that this tremendous knowledge reaches all the children in Israel."

The scientist: Are you ready to expand on the three threats?

"Regarding the question of what the children are taught: regarding the ultra-Orthodox children, we do not put on the table what the children should learn in a reformed country and this is not reasonable. A modern state forces parents to send their children to school. There is a compulsory education law in every western country and here too. But unlike us, every other western country says what the children should learn. There is a core program that defines what the child must receive and with us each sector does as it wishes. In order for children to have a choice when they grow up they need to be educated when they are small. This is their right and we as a country are abandoning the children."

As for the issue of teacher training - most teachers come from teaching colleges. There are about two dozen such colleges, the admission requirements for each of them are lower than the admission requirements of almost every university department. There are very talented people who could have been admitted to any faculty who ideologically want to be teachers and that is fantastic, but they are not the majority. The majority are those who fail to enter university, but we entrust our children to them in the hope that they will be able to bring them to university level. This is unacceptable."

The third issue: "We need to rethink how this whole business works. First of all, we must have budgetary transparency, we have no idea how much we spend per student in the ultra-Orthodox system compared to the Arab system compared to the state religious system compared to the state system. This is A.B. How much money goes to whom. Another example - we lack teachers in certain fields - mathematics, physics, English. If we want good teachers in these fields, we will have to compete against the alternatives that these teachers have - the private sector. We will have to pay them a competitive wage accordingly and also demand competitive working conditions, but at the moment we have a very fixed system and this is not really possible. These are just a few examples here of some things we need to do."

The scientist: You have been saying this for years, and no one listens, how can this be changed?

Prof. Dan Ben-David, Department of Public Policy, Tel Aviv University, and CEO of the Taub Center
Prof. Dan Ben-David, Department of Public Policy, Tel Aviv University, and CEO of the Taub Center

"I have been warning for years, and these things led to a speaking committee that came out with significant recommendations for a systemic reform of the education system. The problem is not that we don't know what needs to be done. We also need the political will to do it, and to some extent we are on borrowed time. We still have a window of opportunity. Today it is possible to find a majority in the Knesset to change the entire future of the country and perhaps also in the next Knesset, but the demographic changes are such that at some point we will reach a demographic-democratic point of no return. If we pass this point it's over. The sky won't fall the next day, it will fall later. As hard as it is today to do the things we all know need to be done, it will be impossible at some point."

"We have first-class universities, but we have an unparalleled brain drain. The question is not just how many children are born in each group, but how many of the people we need the most are we shaving from the top. We have the knowledge, money flows to Israel, both as direct investments and as venture capital. We are one of the leaders in the world. This is not charity, we deserve it because we are really good. We have knowledge, money, ability in the Knesset to change because we just need to find the willingness to do so."

 

In the same topic on the science website:

 

For the previous episode in the "Haunted Country" series: Haunted country M. - Let's say Pluto is in opposition, what does that mean for the interest rate?"

Comments

  1. As usual the left-socialist (economic not political) creates problems and then analyzes why they exist.
    The "demographic problem" was created because of an allowance policy. This problem is disappearing since the change in child allowances in 2003.
    See for example the zero growth of the Arab sector in elementary schools 4% (born 2007-2013) compared to upper division 21% (born 1998-2004).
    On the other hand, the secular sector is recovering - 2% in the upper division and 9% in the elementary school - this corresponds to findings from other sources about an increase in the secular birth rate.
    The ultra-Orthodox column seems strange because the middle school is missing - in light of the trends in the birth rate in ultra-Orthodox cities (a clear decrease since 2003), they probably mixed elementary education with the middle school to hide the decrease in growth.
    I have previously referred to the CBS data and Ben David's own reports which show that the trend has reversed and the data describe the problems of the past.

    Since the cut in allowances, the participation rate of ultra-Orthodox in the labor market has been on the rise.
    Core studies should not be forced, but income supplement allowances should be cut and then more people will go to work.
    Already today there are many more academic training courses for ultra-Orthodox that include computers, English and mathematics.
    Because when people set out to earn a living, they discover the importance of general education.
    The increase in the rate of employed people can be seen from Bank of Israel data:
    http://www.boi.org.il/he/DataAndStatistics/Pages/SeriesGraph.aspx?SeriesCode=EM_R.A&DateStart=01/12/1995&DateEnd=31/12/2012&Level=4&Sid=22
    Since the allowances were reduced in 2002-2003, there has been a consistent increase (except for 2008) in the percentage of employed people out of all people of working age.

    The shortage of English and math teachers is caused by the socialist approach of the Histadrut of Teachers and the teachers' organization that produce incentives for seniority at the expense of quality.
    A bad teacher with 20 years of experience in a less important and easier to teach profession earns more than an excellent teacher in a sought-after profession with 5 years of experience.
    Do you want an excellent education system? Allow differential pay for teachers and competition between schools. Today the students are captive customers according to the residential address. Where there are captive customers, the service provider (the school) has no reason to improve.

    In connection with demographics, I quote a previous comment of mine that was originally published in a demon-haunted country, L.E.:
    https://www.hayadan.org.il/israel-to-become-third-world-281112/comment-page-2/#comments

    Let's start with the index that is easy to check at birth for the ratio of Jews to Arabs:
    http://www.cbs.gov.il/www/yarhon/c1_h.htm
    In 2000 approximately 30% of newborns were Arab in 2011 a little less than 24%
    Births per 1000 decreased from 35 to 25 compared to an increase among the Jews. Since there is a positive immigration balance of about 10000 Jews per year, this offsets the fact that Jews have about 20 births per 1000.
    A confirmation of this can be found in an article by the Taub Institute
    http://taubcenter.org.il/tauborgilwp/wp-content/uploads/C1-Education-Blass-Heb.pdf
    In the chapter on kindergartens (the effect from 2003-2004 is evident only in kindergartens because in the article there are data up to 2010)
    The relevant chapter
    The demography in the kindergartens as a trend heralding the general development
    Regarding the ultra-orthodox, it is more difficult to find data. We will base it on the same chapter in the Taub Institute article:
    Figure 7 shows that between 2000 and 2005 state education dropped from 43 to 37 percent, while in 2010 it remained at 37%, a similar trend in religious states. We are talking about children aged 3-5 years old whose change in 2003 begins to have an effect in 2006-2008, so in the article we see it in the 2010 data.
    In addition, in another place that I don't currently have the link for, you can see that the participation rate of ultra-Orthodox in the labor market is on the rise. In addition, in recent years many tracks have been opened for ultra-orthodox academics. A small change in allowances is a big change in society.
    If they also reduce the income guarantee, you will see an even bigger change.
    A bit long answer, I hope it is exhaustive.

  2. Those who can't find anything wrong with my words simply advise others to ignore them - what's more, they exposed twists in his words

  3. There are those for whom telling the truth about religion reveals the Jannah that always exists in the background

  4. Gilgamesh

    You are right in your claim that the secular state education system is partly disappointing, therefore some students abandon it.

    According to the tables, the main dropout is at the stage of the upper division, this is the reason why there is a decrease in the number of students in the upper division in secular state education. It is impossible to explain this decrease in terms of a demographic decrease, because in recent years there has been a demographic increase in the secular Jewish sector as well. The explanation you presented (i.e. students prefer studying outside this system, for example external schools) is very possible. I also brought up another possible explanation, and that is that students who abandon the secular state education partly go to the religious state system because the quality of education there is not as degraded as in the secular state education. Don't be impressed by a hater of religion like M-Y-K-A-L for whom the mention of religious education brings him Jannah.

  5. Gilgamesh:
    Maybe you are a person of prep school and completing your matriculation but most people manage without it (they have no choice).
    Do you want them to continue spending money on ultra-Orthodox training and not invest the money in the education system (and allow more people to get by without prep schools and completing matriculation?
    And on the topic of deprivation - apparently beyond all the usual deprivation they decided to prepare a new example especially for you:
    http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/education/.premium-1.2092075

  6. We are a country of preparatory schools and completion of matriculation, anyway no one has been educated in the education system for years. What do you have to teach the ultra-Orthodox? You don't learn English without an English environment (music, movies, etc.) and calculus anyway, they won't learn at a level where it will be professionally useful and the average person can be satisfied with knowing the multiplication table and if he needs to learn more than that, you can complete it. Regarding the Arabs, you did not provide any data on deprivation by the state, does a teacher receive less salary? Are there fewer schools/classes in relation to the number of students? It is clear to me that there are cases of discrimination, but it is also clear to me that there are cases of discrimination against the ultra-Orthodox, and it is possible that the main problem is the culture of the sector, as with the ultra-Orthodox, which, on the whole, is something that the authorities are afraid to monitor, and therefore there is a mess.

  7. People don't send their children to school so that they learn in an orderly manner....lies

  8. There are those who only doubt real things.
    Note that the children who will be in the education system by 2019 have all already been born and you can know exactly which education system they will study in

  9. In fact, this is probably another optimistic prediction. Because given the level of salaries that large populations receive while they are required to finance Europe's cost of living and London's housing prices and populations that refuse to work, the secular educated will be the first to leave, and then we really won't be able to maintain a first world economy and army.

  10. Propaganda. We present numerical hypotheses regarding the situation in the future (year 2019) and build far-reaching conclusions on top of the imaginary hypotheses.

    Also, I assume that a large part of the secular state students go to state religious schools because the studies there are more organized, not because they become religious. In many countries in the Christian world there are parents who prefer to send to Christian schools if the secular schools are of poor quality.

  11. Of course, all the numbers in these tables assume that what was in the past is what will be in the future. However, it is also clear that withholding a budget from schools that do not teach basic subjects (which must be expanded every year), will push more students back to state education.

    Regarding education in the Arab sector: I am not clear where the claim is. If they are willing to teach according to the plan of the Ministry of Education (probably yes), and if the Arabs want to learn (probably yes), then all that is needed is that they fund each student there with exactly the same amount as in Haifa or Hadera, and make sure to improve the level of teachers there as well.

    Conclusion: There is probably no acute problem in the vocational education system. There is an acute political problem of politicians for whom the future means nothing.

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