How governments use science fiction to predict potential threats

There are many topics that science fiction deals with that will undoubtedly feed defense research around warfare and ways to reduce risk. While we can never fully predict the future, we can only hope that our leaders and decision makers learn the lessons hinted at in science fiction so that we can avoid the dystopia that much of science fiction depicts

By: Mike Ryder, Lecturer in Marketing, Lancaster University

From sophisticated fighting machines to supercomputers And killer robots, science fiction has a lot to say about war. You may be surprised to learn that some governments (incl בריטניה and France) are now turning their attention to these fantastical stories as a way to think about possible futures and try to fend off potential threats.

For many years, science fiction writers have been making prophecies about futuristic technologies that later became reality. In 1964, Arthur C. Clarke Predict the Internet. And in 1983, Isaac Asimov predicted that Modern life would become impossible without computers.

This made governments take notice. Not only can science fiction help us imagine a future shaped by new technologies, it can also help us draw lessons about potential threats.

There are many topics that science fiction deals with that will undoubtedly feed defense research around warfare and ways to reduce risk. While we can never fully predict the future, we can only hope that our leaders and decision makers learn the lessons hinted at in science fiction so that we can avoid the dystopia that much of science fiction suggests.

Here are four science fiction topics that governments might consider.

1. Super soldiers

Super soldiers are a major theme in science fiction and take many forms. They are often "super" because of their technology, as inThe space warriors” by Robert Heinlein (1959) and “The Eternal War” by Joe Haldeman (1974). However, more modern examples also explore how supersoldiers can be further augmented with stronger muscles and even extra organs.

These super soldiers are stronger, faster, and better able to wage war, so unsurprisingly, their role often has many moral and ethical implications. The battle computer in Forever War has the power to blow up any soldier who doesn't follow orders.

Meanwhile, in the popular narrative game Warhammer 40,000, monk-like warriors receive transplants of a second heart, a third lung, and a whole host of other implants to help them survive on the battlefield. They are called space lander, and they change so much that they lose touch with the very things that made them human in the first place.

2. Drones

UAV operations play an increasingly important role in modern warfare, with the US and its allies using Predator and Reaper drones to patrol the skies and kill suspected terrorists from afar. Recently we have seen examples of the use of Mel"Marine teams in the war in Ukraine.

But, of course, science fiction has long predicted this kind of warfare and, if anything, it's just a logical continuation of the computing of everyday life.

In Orson Scott Card's novel Ender's Game (1985), the boy protagonist Ander Wiggin is taken to battle school, where he takes part in a series of complex military exercises using computers to simulate war against a distant alien enemy. Only after he destroys the aliens' home world, Ender discovers that he wasn't playing a game at all, but was commanding real-world forces fighting in outer space.

In the article I recently published, I argue that Ender's Game both anticipates and engages with many of the key discussions we are having in this field today. This includes how targets are selected and the moral and ethical questions surrounding remote killing. As drones become more common in everyday civilian life, these issues will only become more pressing.

3. Bioengineering

Beyond drones and advanced computer technologies, we might also consider the biological sciences and the role of animals used to support humanitarian operations in war.

In Adrian Tchaikovsky's film "War Dogs" (2017), the protagonist is a biologically engineered dog - literally, a war dog (mercenary) - who follows orders without question until one day he discovers that his masters are not exactly the "good guys" they claim .

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Like many of the best works of science fiction, War Dogs poses many ethical and moral questions about the human condition, including how humans so often exploit others, and how animals then fit into our moral framework.

For example, the real-world case of the dog bought who saved the lives of soldiers in Afghanistan and received the canine equivalent of the Victoria Cross. If we want to send animals into dangerous situations to assist soldiers or to look for earthquake survivors, so maybe the animals should also be increased to reduce risks and make them better at what they do?

4. Change Behavioral

Science fiction has a lot to say about drugs and how chemicals can be used to distort reality and change behavior. Perhaps the most famous writer in this field is Philip K. Dick, with novels like The Three Stigmata of Palmer Aldrich (1964), Jobik (1969) and Flow My Tears, the Policeman Said (1974) dealing with variations on this theme. 

There was also the movie Serenity (2005) (and its much-missed TV series, Firefly), where Captain Malcolm Reynolds and his crew travel to the planet Miranda to discover the dark results of drugs used to control populations and make people more docile.

While these examples may seem sinister, they pale in comparison to the experiments conducted by the CIA in real life.

Towards the end of the Vietnam War, it was discovered that the CIA had conducted illegal experiments on humans to develop brainwashing and torture drugs. This operation, known as MK-ULTRA, Released at a Senate hearing in 1977.

While we can only hope that such extreme and horrific experiments are a thing of the past, the idea of  behavioral change He's still a big deal in defense research, though perhaps not as much as he was in the middle of the last century.

Indeed, many would argue that social networks are today Global battlefield, when information warfare is a real threat to security, and Russia and China are accused of managing it Cybernetic campaigns against the West.

For an article in The Conversation