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The future of electric vehicles - and the meaning for all of us

You must have heard about electric vehicles - those strange animals that are starting to appear on the roads. But maybe you didn't know how important they are to our future - and how close they are to wider market penetration. So here is a brief overview of the field, in a dozen points.

Tesla Model 3s vehicles. Source: Steve Jurvetson.
Tesla Model 3 vehicles. source: Steve jurvetson.

Ordinary vehicles are complex creatures. Energy researcher Tony Saba from Stanford claims that to transfer the power from internal combustion engines to the wheels, 2,000 moving components are needed. In electric vehicles only twenty[1] are needed. Every engineer knows that one of the critical points of failure in any device is in its moving parts - they wear out, wear out and are destroyed due to the constant movement. Electric vehicles are expected to be more resistant to wear and tear in this respect - therefore the cost of using them will also be lower.

The ten components that are replaced most frequently in a normal vehicle (at an average cost of almost 400 dollars per year), do not exist at all in electric vehicles[2]. That is, the electric vehicle does not have to deal with the same problems of normal vehicles.

The seemingly weak point of electric vehicles - the battery - turns out to be a strong point. Tesla's electric vehicle (model S 100D) has already managed to travel 1078 km without recharging the battery[3]. So it's true, the trip was at a speed of 40 km/h and without air conditioning, but the point is clear - the batteries are constantly improving. Tesla's newest and cheapest model can cover 350 kilometers on a single charge. And the cost of batteries is also steadily decreasing, and since 2010 the cost of lithium-ion batteries has dropped by 73 percent - and expectations are for further dramatic decreases in the next twenty years[4].

And what about battery life? Here is the big surprise. A normal passenger car internal combustion engine survives about 240,000 kilometers before returning its life to the manufacturer[5]. The battery in Tesla's electric vehicle, by comparison, should survive 800,000 kilometers before it drops to 80 percent capacity[6]. There are also temporary reports on hybrid vehicles (Toyota Prius) in which the battery managed to continue functioning even after a million kilometers[7].

According to estimates of the cost of fuel alone compared to the cost of electric charging, Tesla's electric vehicles save (in California) three quarters of refueling costs. In a country like Israel, where Israeli drivers pay 65% ​​tax on every liter of gasoline, the discount should be much more dramatic[8].

And none of this will change anything for the average driver, who now has to fork out an obscene amount of cash ($35,000 for the cheapest Tesla) to purchase a brand new electric vehicle. Most drivers think about the price here and now, and not about the cost of cheap maintenance. The big change will come in the public transportation industry. Taxi drivers need vehicles that last a long time - they travel about 80,000 kilometers a year[9], or about 300 kilometers a day on average - a distance that even a (relatively) cheap electric vehicle can easily cover. The taxi industry will be the one to really benefit from the electric vehicles... if it doesn't collapse in the next twenty years.

But she could definitely collapse. Autonomous vehicles are starting to provide driverless rides already today in a few selected cities around the world (Singapore, Boston, Pittsburgh, Dubai and more), on an experimental basis. They are still not as safe as human drivers, but they are steadily improving, and the writing is already on the wall. The former CEO of Uber has already announced that by 2030 all of Uber's taxi fleet will be autonomous[10]. That is, another 13 years - the average lifespan of a personal car.

Electric charging of a Tesla Model 3 car. Source: Steve Jurvetson.
Electric charging of a Tesla Model 3 car. source: Steve jurvetson.

What else? The penetration of autonomous vehicles into the field of public transportation should strengthen the parallel trend of the penetration of electric vehicles into the market. These are two trends that reinforce each other, because an autonomous electric vehicle can go around day and night without stopping, drive at moderate speeds in the city that will allow it to cover many hundreds of kilometers before needing to be recharged, and enjoy extremely low maintenance costs. In such a situation, where convenient, cheap and efficient vehicles are available in every corner of the city, your children will already prefer to save themselves the effort of obtaining a driver's license and purchasing a private vehicle, maintaining the vehicle, searching for parking spaces, wasting time driving and risking accidents (which should be rarer in autonomous vehicles). In such a situation, who wouldn't prefer a shared autonomous vehicle?

Such a development should also help the environment... but only on the condition that it is used correctly. In the most optimistic model for the year 2050 that the experts in the field predict for us - that of electric, autonomous and shared vehicles (that is, not for private use) - the number of vehicles on the world's roads will decrease to a quarter of their number today, and the amount of carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles will decrease to approximately fifteen percent of the amount of emissions today . Even in the more pessimistic model of electric and autonomous vehicles only, but owned and used privately, the amount of emissions should decrease by almost a third[11].

None of this is meant to tell you that the revolution will come tomorrow morning, or that you should buy Tesla shares. Tesla, it must be admitted, is serially disappointing from a business point of view, and this year in particular it managed to produce only a small part of the number of Model 3s vehicles that it pledged to supply to the public[12]. But Tesla is only the pioneer, and it shows the world how it is possible to use the newest technologies with a little daring - and without the fixation that characterizes the automobile and oil industry. Tesla's production technologies will improve or it will be replaced by other companies that will produce cheaper electric vehicles.

But when will the revolution really come? Depends on who you ask. The consulting company RethinkX believes that by 2030 we will hardly see vehicles that use gasoline[13]. TechCast experts believe that by 2027, a third of all vehicles will be electric. Morgan Stanley predicts that within twenty years electric vehicles will overtake conventional vehicles[14]. The Bloomberg company is relatively conservative in its forecasts and sets 2040 as the target date for replacing a third of the vehicles with electric vehicles, but even it believes that by 2025 the electric vehicles will reach the same price as the internal combustion vehicles. All consulting firms, by the way, have been providing increasingly optimistic forecasts in recent years as they see how technology continues to advance. The only ones that do not change their forecasts are the oil companies... for an obvious reason[15].

We will end the record by examining the implications of RethinkX's most optimistic scenario, the contract that by 2030 electric vehicles will replace internal combustion engines. This is not a completely far-fetched prediction. From the moment the costs of regular automobiles dropped enough in the United States in 1917, it took only one decade for almost every family in America to own a car. Similarly, the camera market has been virtually replaced by digital cameras in less than a decade. Changes based on customer choice can happen quickly, provided the technology has caught up. If such a change also occurs for electric vehicles, then the fuel consumption of the advanced countries will drop. Such a change will have a major impact on both the environment and global geopolitics: Western countries will rely less on the Muslim oil producers and Russia, and even ISIS (who earn about 250 million dollars a year from the oil wells in their possession[16]) will find it difficult to support themselves in the environment the new

So what will the transition to electric vehicles bring us? When used optimally, it will provide us with a healthier environment, an improvement in the standard of living of the common citizen, and even a more effective fight against terrorism. I can't wait anymore.

[Much of the data here comes from the post of – https://shift.newco.co/this-is-how-big-oil-will-die-38b843bd4fe0]

You are invited to read more about my ideas about the future of energy, transportation and governance in my new book "who control the future", in the selected bookstores (and those that are just fine).

See more on the subject on the science website:

Reference

Dr.Roey Tsezana

Dr.Roey Tsezana

For the blog of Dr. Roi Tsezna another science Dr.Roey Tsezana is the author of the books "The Guide to the Future" and "The Rulers of the Future"
For all the author's articles

24 תגובות

  2. Yosef
    I didn't think you had a link. We both know why….
    I worked in hospitals with 3 tesla MRI machines and today there are 3 times more powerful machines. One tesla is 10 million milligauss, and there is no danger in these machines. A few people who get scanned report some nausea or a metallic taste in the mouth, but this goes away after the scan and there are no side effects.

    Perhaps it should be noted that the strength of the Earth's magnetic field is measured in hundreds of milligauss? So what are you talking about less than two milligauss? Tell me where this nonsense comes from.

    Again - a reliable link and not grandmother's stories, please. Have you seen patients? Based on what exactly did you determine that this was the cause of their illness?

  3. I don't weaken. People with an innate genetic predisposition that does not understand any need, there is a switch that generates a phenomenon in their body.
    How do you know it's genetic? There is an inheritance. There is an effect of race on the tendency.
    what is the switch We don't know completely, but research doctors believe that ionizing and non-ionizing radiation, processed food, and the stresses of the modern lifestyle. They don't understand how it affects. It is possible to measure a significant correlation even without realizing it.
    And that's why they recommend to those patients, some will say with scientific blindness, some will say like me with common sense: for those people to avoid
    of the three factors above as much as possible.

  4. I have a reputable link to an extensive article that refers to secondary sources. For reasons of non-disclosure of details, I do not bring. Google it, you might find it. Look up autoimmune diseases in English.

  5. The mechanisms of effect are not entirely clear. In my humble estimation only at the end of the process they will be understood. Today, physicists and electrical engineers entered the field of biology and genomics with control theories to describe biological systems.
    In such situations where there is no theoretical theory, it is possible to prove a statistical correlation between cause and effect and this is done.
    Do we see a systematic study with a placebo group, which will test drivers of hybrid vehicles versus drivers of gasoline vehicles,
    For a period of 30 years, in a wide genetic distribution? There are many hybrid vehicles today.
    Radiation travels like one part of the square of space (both in the near field and in the far field). I measured it with an accurate magnetic radiation meter. Someone asked where 50 cm is. If you get close enough to the source of the radiation, its intensity increases. Even above 2 milligauss (magnetic radiation). There are mechanisms that I don't understand that operate in my (only modest) opinion on a fraction of the population, perhaps even at an intensity lower than 2 milligauss. I said: I didn't believe it, I saw patients. They are not all cuckoos.

  6. Yosef
    Do you have a link from a real site that backs up what you say?
    Why did you mention processed food and stress? People are also damaged by 0.5 bullets... but, what does that have to do with it? You just weaken your argument like that….

  7. Miracles:
    Radiation does not need to ionize an atom (=release an electron) to cause cell failure. A magnetic field copies charged parts of the cell to another location. I was sure it was bullshit until I saw it. Not everything can be detailed in a blog. I would always say nonsense they say - delusional. I am familiar with electromagnetic fields. Impossible. In addition, I tell you and you may not believe me, that there are expert doctors in all hospitals who know about the damage and there are also scientific articles - I read them. At least one thousandth of the population is damaged by a combination of radiation from power lines (AC) and rotating motors (also DC), orbitals close to the body under 50 cm, from industrialized food and pressure. Of course with a genetic predisposition that has not yet been fully understood. What it does to them is immune diseases and the severe disease. Statistically, it is possible to find an adapter for electrifying radiation. I do not know.

  8. skeptic
    This video is kind of funny. Just look at how the guy parked 🙂 There are also certain actions you have to perform in a Tesla during long parking, and I don't think the guy is aware of it.
    Gasoline also has a problem with standing. Park a car for six months and you can even smell that the fuel has changed. The car may move, but the engine may be damaged.

  10. Lancem, certainly sounds reasonable, I read a little superficially what is the time that a gas car can last without the battery draining
    Write different times from a few weeks and even months, apparently as you wrote it depends on how many consumers are sitting on the battery while the vehicle is not started, so a modern vehicle is expected to have more consumers that continue to work in the background,
    There is of course one difference and that is the ability to get out of such a situation where the battery has been discharged in a car with gas the problem is with starting compared to an electric car the problem is that it does not have electricity which is its "fuel" as we know what we do in a gas car (from experience) is 2 cables another car with a person willing to help Those who start say thank you from the bottom of their hearts and drive home, and this is probably not exactly what will happen in an electric car where it is a more complex story that takes more time, below is the link to what it looks like when the power runs out in an electric car: https://youtu.be/zPTmTDWrbes Regards.

  11. skeptic
    What you said about battery drain is true for any vehicle. Especially, in newer cars where there are systems that work even when the vehicle is off (alarm, unlocking doors, remote drive, tracking devices, clock, and so on). There are cars that can stand for 3 months without a problem, but there are cars that will not move after three weeks or even less (certain BMW and Mercedes models for example).
    Of course - Woody Allen's Beetle started after 200 years...

  12. Yosef
    There is no real danger in a magnetic field. Nothing like this is known in the scientific or medical world - so please don't make things up. I have yet to hear of someone getting brain cancer because of their headphones...
    Very strong fields have an effect (ask Bender from Phytorama) and high frequencies certainly do (TMS has a proven effect, and radar can definitely cook a person).
    A car is one of the most dangerous inventions that man made, but not because of the magnets….

    Is radiation from a distance of 50 cm dangerous? Do you have a source for this?

  14. Battery and accumulator do not survive 800,000 km. They survive two to five years, whichever comes first compared to 800,000.
    Two to five years depending on the quality of the battery.
    Another point: the effect of radiation from the engine was not studied. Apparently a DC motor and no radiation, but there is a magnetic stator. Metal in the middle does not mask a magnetic field but only electric and the magnetic is the problem here. Radiation from a distance smaller than 50 cm is dangerous.
    One thousandth of the population and the increasing rates are sensitive to radiation and develop neurological problems or the severe disease probably due to genetics. This is known in the scientific world and to doctors, until you get to the studies that are done around radiation from electricity poles (50 HZ), or from a cell phone (2.5 GHZ). So there are no unequivocal conclusions. The need for an electric vehicle has not been sufficiently studied. How is it known that there is damage? The rate of those coming for treatment in the field has increased. Provides a livelihood for doctors in the field. Specialist doctors in Israel know.

  15. Hello Roy,
    Regarding: "A normal passenger car internal combustion engine survives about 240,000 kilometers before returning its life to the manufacturer"
    The statistic of vehicle survivals comes from reference number 5, this is a document of:
    US department of transportation national highway traffic safety administration
    This is about (correct me if I'm wrong) about the survival of the car at a general level, it's not about an engine
    It is not entirely clear from the document what the reasons for the survivors are (accident, wrecked vehicle, etc...) it seems to be something general,
    If we take for example the distance between Eilat and Tel Aviv which is 355 km and an Egged bus for example will travel this distance back and forth every day which is 710 km every day and we will take the figure of 240,000 and divide it by 710
    We will accept that on average every 338 days Egged will replace the engine in the bus, which is a figure that does not seem logical,
    In addition, we know that engines even of antique vehicles after renovation can drive even after decades,
    The state-of-the-art electric vehicles have not yet existed long enough to receive the full information for comparison with the internal combustion engines, the new "popular" model of Tesla is only now coming to the market, only when there are tens and hundreds of thousands it will be a real figure for comparison with the internal combustion vehicles,
    The internal combustion engines are the product of 100 years of mature technology development and it is not that they have stopped developing even today,
    Against this the electric vehicle is supposed to compete and there is no doubt that the electric vehicle is closing the big gap in recent years
    The question is, has he already closed the gap enough? (All this without going into environmental issues at all),
    There are other problems with electric vehicles that can prevent their wide use, not all of us are familiar with one of them
    I saw something on the internet (not something scientific) with a Tesla car that didn't know that the batteries were running out even if they weren't in use, it arrived at the airport to the parking lot and that it came back after a few weeks the car was without electricity and he had to order a tow truck
    It turns out, at least according to what he said there, that from his examination after that this is the nature of the behavior of the battery in the car
    If this is true then we will also need a car parked in the parking lot to be connected to a charging station all the time
    And in fact we will pay for a vehicle that does not drive for its charging, in conclusion, the future may be of electric vehicles
    But it will take a few more good years.

  16. Another advantage of an electric vehicle compared to fuel that applies even if the transition to green energy is not completed,
    It is the ability to use natural gas which is much less polluting. It is possible to build a car that runs on gas, but it is complicated and with many safety problems (for example, they are not allowed in an underground parking lot)
    In Israel, in the coming years, more electricity will be produced from gas than oil products.

  17. א
    Everything you said is true. There is another source of savings for an electric vehicle, which is the generation of electricity during braking. This is an important source of savings in a hybrid vehicle. Think of a vehicle like a Toyota Prius driving in a mountainous area. It uses the electric motor as additional power on the uphills and the battery is recharged on the downhills. Beyond this notable savings - the vehicle can make do with a smaller internal combustion engine, which is another savings.

  18. Meir
    In my opinion the loading time is not that important for most people. As long as the charging time is shorter than a whole night and the driving range for a full battery is greater than the daily driving range.
    In special cases, charging for 10 minutes during the day will be enough until the evening even if you don't fully charge the battery.
    It is clear that this is still a detriment to comfort compared to fuel, at least in the current generation of batteries. In future generations it will improve

  19. to "b"
    You are wrong, an electric vehicle saves fuel even if it is charged from electricity generated with the help of fuel.
    Take for example the hybrid vehicles. On the face of it, you might think it's a stupid idea to add more weight of batteries and another electric motor that receives energy from a combustion engine. But it turns out that this is not the case and that such a vehicle does save fuel significantly.
    A fully electric vehicle will save much more even.
    You have to understand that an internal combustion engine in terms of energy utilization is very poor for a task like driving on the road, which naturally involves sudden stops and acceleration. A power plant engine can be larger up to the most ideal size for energy utilization, its design does not consider weight at the expense of energy efficiency. And it can operate most of the time at the most ideal RPM for the engine. (Not entirely accurate because during peak demand for electricity, the utilization decreases, but cars will charge mainly at night so that it will be at a time of low demand for electricity) When traveling within the city or on a congested intercity road, the difference in fuel utilization will be Huge. Because a gasoline engine wastes a lot of fuel even during stops and an electric engine does not. In addition to that, an electric vehicle can turn the braking energy back into electricity (this is possible, I don't know if it is already done in today's generation of vehicles)
    And all this, of course, on the assumption that the additional electricity will not come from green sources. In Europe for example it is almost certain that the new power plants will be green. And this is because of a strong lobby and high public awareness. No politician would want his shift to record the percentage of polluting electricity produced. In Israel, of course, it depends on the citizens and the pressure they will apply.
    Regardless of electric cars there will be an indirect contribution to renewable energy in that they will cause the development of more durable and cheaper efficient batteries and cheaper production processes. And thus one of the biggest problems of renewable energy will be solved, which is the instability in energy production. A peak in energy production can be precisely at a time of low demand compared to times of a complete stop in production (no wind for example or at night). An efficient and cheap means of storing electricity solves the problem.

  22. Electricity generation is also still largely based on fossil fuel. Until they switch to solar energy and similar natural solutions, there will be no savings in electricity production

  23. Not a word about the electromagnetic radiation from the electric motor...
    According to the FDA standard, long-term exposure of 2 milligauss is a real health risk of getting cancer.
    There is not a single car company in Israel that sells hybrid vehicles that is ready to measure radiation independently during an hour's drive in the city and outside the city.
    Meaning.. they have a lot to hide.
    Until this issue is addressed, we will all say no thanks to the electric car...

  24. The amount of moving parts are only part of the story.
    An electric motor works at a much lower temperature, which in itself reduces wear. In addition, it does not require a cooling system that can also break down, and a malfunction in it can lead to increased wear and even complete destruction of the engine.
    And in addition to the moving parts, we also save "wet" systems of oil, water and fuel, each of which may leak or clog.
    On the other hand, an autonomous car will include many computer systems and sensors that are not in a regular car. And they will need strict maintenance and I assume also frequent periodic reviews. A small fault in one of them is much more serious than a minor oil leak. The software will also be more sophisticated and may suffer from various malfunctions, and in addition, cyber maintenance will be added in a much more serious manner than today.
    If a company after a few years decides to remove support for an old model, this will probably lead to it being taken off the road by the state.

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