Virologist: Most likely the great power of the current epidemic will be difficult to stop, at most the rate of infection will slow down in the northern hemisphere and increase in the southern hemisphere
By: Jeremy Rossman, Senior Lecturer in Virology and President of Research Support Networks, University of Kent. Translation: Nitzan Burak
As the number of victims continues to rise, some have speculated that the warm spring weather we are approaching in the Northern Hemisphere could slow down or even stop the spread of the disease. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, backed this up by saying "the heat, you could say, kills viruses of this type". But is he right?
The idea that the impending spring is able to stop the spread of the disease is largely an attempt to compare it to the flu. In a number of ways, COVID-19 is like the flu; Both are contagious in a similar way (typhtic secretions from the respiratory system and infected surfaces), both cause mild respiratory illness that can progress to life-threatening pneumonia. The difference lies in the fact that the infectiousness and damage of the COVID-19 make it a more serious disease. (Note: Corona causes direct damage to the lung while influenza allows secondary bacterial infection). And it is not clear whether the infectivity of COVID-19 will be affected by seasonal temperature delays.
In the case of the flu, the beginning of spring brings with it a significant decrease in the number of people infected, the decrease is maintained until the fall in autumn temperatures. The seasonality of the flu is attributed to the sensitivity of the virus to different climates as well as seasonal changes in our behavior and our immune system.
First, the influenza virus has been observed to survive well in cold and dry weather conditions, with a decrease in ultraviolet radiation (the angle of the Earth in winter causes that hemisphere to "move away" from the sun and the intensity of UV rays is lower) Second, the few hours of daylight in winter lead to a decrease in vitamin D and melatonin levels, which affect the function of the immune system. On top of that, in the winter we gather more, in closed spaces and in close proximity to other people, thereby increasing the ability of the virus to pass.
Comparison with other viruses from the Corona family
How will these factors affect the spread of the corona virus? It is still not clear what the effect of cold and humidity is on the virus itself and not on its ability to spread. Other viruses in the family do show seasonal behavior. They are responsible for about 15 percent of the cases of the seasonal cold (COMMON COLD) which is common in winter.
In 2002-2003 the Sars epidemic also started in the Northern Hemisphere winter and ended in July 2003 with a marginal reappearance the following winter. But SARS reached its peak in the hot month of May, and it is possible that July after all only marks the time it took to curb the spread and not the result of seasonality. When we examine its Mediterranean brother, MERS, we learn that it spreads mainly in warm countries.
Returning to our comparison to the flu, the swine flu pandemic of 2009 began in the spring, intensified throughout the spring and summer months, and peaked in the winter. This implies that in pandemics, the high number of cases in different countries is what drives the continued spread of the virus even in the summer, and dwarfs the seasonal tendency as seen in small epidemics. While the World Health Organization has not yet declared the COVID-19 a pandemic, many experts believe that the road there is guaranteed and paved.
It can be concluded that the recent hot weather could lower the ability of the virus to spread in the Northern Hemisphere (with the potential for increased spread in the Southern Hemisphere). However, I will not explain that it is the weather itself that will bring an end to the spreading epidemic.
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For an article in The Conversation
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For b050: Fever is not related to virus mutations.
Mutations are created as a result of the disruption of the nucleotide sequence during replication, and this is a chemical reaction that is only possible in the temperature range that maintains the active spatial structure of the virus, which is destroyed above 60 degrees Celsius, or more precisely, the binding sites of the virus begin to lose their reactive specificity already at 40 degrees and above .
Industrial engineer or flight attendant engineer in Manpaur.
Yoveb, you wrote amazingly. You put my thoughts into words.
In Australia, the virus broke out at the same time as in the Northern Hemisphere
So... but we will still hope for the best
On the contrary, the heat will only cause the creation of new mutations of the same virus and the heat will contribute to the spread of the virus in a faster way, at least not all heat is too extreme for the virus...
How is the virus now behaving in areas of the world that are now hot?
To know what will stop the virus you need to know what was the cause of the virus.
Today there are several hypotheses: bats that were eaten in the market in China, a virus that was spread from a laboratory, etc.
Like any phenomenon, humanity sometimes takes decades to understand what the root of the phenomenon was.
This virus is not a plague, it is a cure. A medicine for a confused humanity that is in the midst of consumption, doing, pressing full gas.
But she lacks one thing - the same steering wheel that will direct her in the right way.
Just as it took us time to discover phenomena like the "butterfly effect" or the "wisdom of crowds", we will also discover that we live in a force field, in a global world, that we are connected to each other not only physically, but by additional laws. Laws we have no control over, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
The world froze for a moment, planes grounded, no vacations, no clubs.
Finally there is time to think. To calm down and think: what is really important in life and then we will discover that the relationships between us are the ones that cause every phenomenon in the world.
We will find that the best director could not have thought of a better script for the salvation of humanity.
If we know how to use this precious time, understand that renewal comes only from the connection of several or more ingredients.
When oxygen and hydrogen combine, water is formed
In the union of sperm and egg, life is created
What have we not yet been able to understand?
By fixing our will and connection between us, we can influence what is hanging in our world.
Melatonin is secreted in the dark. not in the light